(Kingston, Ontario, Canada)

I thought that I would be announcing our summer destination in today’s post. However, I still have not booked the flights…and until those flights are booked, it would be premature to say anything. The big reveal of our “off-the-beaten-path” destination will have to wait!

Finding a good deal on intercontinental summer flights is an extremely challenging task.  It’s high season and the airlines aren’t crazy:  prices are significantly higher and any special deals are extremely short-lived.

For a long time, the accepted wisdom was that the best deals could be had at the last minute.  However, as technology has improved, airlines have become much better at filling flights and extracting maximum revenue from passengers.  Simply put, any seats still empty at the last minute will probably be priced very high because there will always be someone desperate enough to buy them.

Alas, booking far ahead of time is not effective either:  prices are usually very high because anybody booking 6-12 months ahead of time is obviously committed to the destination and the time of year.   The trick is to find the “sweet spot”, when airlines identify relatively undersold dates and destinations…and briefly reduce prices enough so that those flights get closer to full and much higher prices can be charged for the remaining seats.

There are some OK deals out there now.  However, they are not for our preferred destination.  They also tend to be for flights with sleepy arrival/departure times, longer layovers, older cabins, and less comfortable seats.   This is our fallback position, as these deals tend to be available for longer periods of time.

Sometime in the next few weeks, about 5 months prior to departure, there will probably be a good deal for a good itinerary with a good airline.  The window of opportunity will be very small and we will have to take advantage of it immediately.  While one could say it’s a lot of pressure, it’s also very exciting.  Some people like finding a good deal at flea markets…I like finding a good deal on travel.  Keeping our travel costs down enables us to travel as much as we do.

Of course, I don’t have any pictures of “the science of airfares”.  Instead, I’ve decided to include some pictures of our 2011 trip to Boston, Massachusetts:  something completely random, to reflect the fact that we still don’t know exactly where we will end up this summer.

Stay tuned, to see if we conquered the science of airfares!